How it works
Every alert tells the same story. You just hear it first.
FleeFirst watches public data — private jets, military aircraft, escape seats, markets, the electric grid — for the moment normal breaks. When a signal you track crosses a threshold you set, you get a text. Hours before the news, while the exits are still open.
The five beats — every signal, every alert
- 1Something stirs
- 2The move breaks normal
- 3You get the text
- 4Your head start
- 5News breaks
01 · Watch one happen
The night the jets don’t come home.
For two quiet days the line breathes with the city — up by day, down by night, inside the grey band of normal.
Then, at 9:38 PM, the count climbs when it should be falling. The powerful are leaving. At 12:14 AM your phone buzzes — the signal crossed your threshold. The amber window is your head start: hours to fill the tank, wake the family, and go. At 9:41 AM the story breaks — and everyone else starts moving at once.
Press play, or scroll and it plays itself.
Business jets
- 1The powerful know something
- 2The powerful flee by jet
- 3You get the text
- 4Your head start
- 5News breaks
Five beats, five colors — the box, its stem, its mark on the chart, and its chip below all match. The line slows into the tell and pauses on every beat; the amber window is the head start unfolding.
Source: Illustration — simulated data, not a real event.
+Where the jet data comes from
Every aircraft over the US broadcasts its position over ADS-B — open radio that anyone can receive. We count business jets airborne, hour by hour, and learn what a normal day looks like.
No classified feeds, no insider sources. The same public data, watched more carefully.
+What the grey band means
The band is the learned rhythm of that signal — what the count has done at that hour, on that day, across months of history.
Drifting toward the edge of the band is a stir. Breaking clean out of it is the tell.
02 · The tripwire is yours
You set the line. We watch it.
There is no committee deciding when to alarm you. Tracking means three choices: pick a signal, set the threshold, tell us where to text.
In the replay below the tripwire is 20% of a city grid dark. The instant the bar crosses your line, the text fires — 43 minutes before the utility confirms anything.
FLEEFIRST: NYC grid — 20% of blocks dark and spreading. Your threshold crossed at 8:19 PM.
Your phone number is the whole signup. One free signal, no credit card.
Electric grid
- 1A city grid, fully lit
- 2Pockets start going dark
- 320% dark — you get the text
- 4Your head start · 43 min
- 5Utility confirms
Outages start as scattered pockets, not one big bang. Each square is a city block; the bar below is your tripwire. When the share of dark blocks crosses the 20% threshold you set, the text fires at 8:19 PM — 43 minutes before the utility confirms at 9:02 PM.
Source: Illustration — simulated data, not a real event.
03 · Same story, every signal
Different data. Same five beats.
A military posture change, a cluster of aircraft going dark, the last seats out of the capital, a commodity spike — each one breaks normal in its own way. The grammar of the alert never changes, so you always know what you’re looking at.
Military aircraft fly a rhythm too. Tankers up at 2 AM and transports moving overnight break the band before anyone announces a posture change.
Military aircraft
- 1Posture starts shifting
- 2Military aircraft surge
- 3You get the text
- 4Your head start
- 5News breaks
Military and government aircraft fly a rhythm too. Tankers up at 2 AM, transports moving overnight — when the count breaks the band, posture changed before anyone announced it.
Source: Illustration — simulated data, not a real event.
A few transponder dropouts an hour is routine. A cluster of aircraft going dark mid-flight is not — the count breaks the band while the sky still looks normal.
GPS · transponders off
- 1Signals start dropping
- 2A cluster goes dark
- 3You get the text
- 4Your head start
- 5News breaks
A few dropouts an hour is routine — coverage gaps, maintenance. A cluster of aircraft switching transponders off mid-flight is not. The count breaks the band while the sky still looks normal.
Source: Illustration — simulated data, not a real event.
Exit seats don’t all sell out by chance. Premium routes out of New York and Washington — Toronto, London, Zurich, Geneva — maxing out within the same hour means the people who can leave are leaving.
Executive escape seats
- 1Normal seat demand
- 2Exit routes sell out at once
- 3You get the text
- 4Your head start
- 5News breaks
Premium seats out of New York and Washington to Toronto, London, Zurich, and Geneva don't all max out in the same hour by chance. Demand spikes route by route until every exit is sold out — the people who can leave are leaving.
Source: Illustration — simulated data, not a real event.
Markets drift a percent or two a day. Oil +54%, gold +47%, Bitcoin −60% in minutes is repositioning at panic speed — and the text fires the instant it spikes.
Commodity prices
- 1Normal market activity
- 2Commodities spike 50%+
- 3You get the text
- 4Your head start
- 5News breaks
Markets drift a percent or two all day. Oil +54%, gold +47%, and Bitcoin −60% in minutes is not drift — it's repositioning at panic speed. Your text fires the instant it spikes, hours before the news.
Source: Illustration — simulated data, not a real event.
04 · What we can’t promise
An early warning, honestly limited.
The replays above are simulations — that’s what the label on every card means. The signals are real, and so are the limits.
+Can a spike mean nothing?
Yes. Spikes happen for mundane reasons — airline technical issues, weather disruptions, major conferences. A single spike is a signal, not a certainty; several abnormal signals moving together carry far more weight.
+Do you have inside information?
No. FleeFirst monitors publicly available data only. We have no access to classified intelligence or insider information — we just watch the public exhaust more carefully.
+Will you tell me when to leave?
Never. FleeFirst is an early-warning tool, not emergency management guidance. How you respond to an alert is entirely your own decision.
The deal
We never declare a threat or tell you when to leave. A FleeFirst text means one thing: a signal you chose crossed a threshold you set.
The first to know are the first to go
Next time, the text goes to you first.
One free signal. No credit card. Your phone number is the whole signup.